2022 House Forecasting Model

The model methodology is outlined here.

The pre-election write-up can be found here.

The GitHub repository can be found here.

Republicans are favored to win the House of Representatives from the Democrats.

The House Forecasting Model has been finalized as of November, 7, 2022 at 9 PM.

Below is the breakdown for the individual congressional races. If Republicans were to only win Solid, Likely, and Leaning GOP seats, they could retake the majority in the House of Representatives without winning a single Tossup district.

Below are a list of the most competitive districts that are currently rated as Tossups.

The GOP also currently leads on the generic ballot. Based on previous midterms where the GOP was out of power, we should expect the GOP to win undecided voters on top of this current edge. In 2010, undecideds split 62% - 38% for the GOP based on my final generic ballot calculation the day before the vote. In 2014, undecideds split 74% - 26% for the GOP.

Below is the distribution of expected seats. Currently, the average prediction is 233 GOP - 202 Dem seats.